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 |  موضوع: كتاب Engineering Economic Analysis السبت 14 أبريل 2012, 4:49 am | |
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Engineering Economic Analysis
Donald G. Newnan
Professor Emeritus of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Ted G. Eschenbach
University of Alaska Anchorage
Jerome P. Lavelle
North Carolina State University
ويتناول الموضوعات الأتية :
ECONOMIC DECISIONS
A Sea of Problems 4
Simple Problems 4
Intermediate Problems 4
Complex Problems 4
The Role of Engineering Economic Analysis 5
Examples of Engineering Economic Analysis 5
The Decision-Making Process 6
Rational Decision Making 6
Engineering Decision Making for Current Costs 15
Summary 18
Problems 19
2 ENGINEERING COSTS AND COST ESTIMATING
Engineering Costs 28
Fixed, Variable, Marginal, and Average Costs 28
Sunk Costs 32
Opportunity Costs 32
Recurring and Nonrecurring Costs 34
Incremental Costs 34
Cash Costs Versus Book Costs 35
Life-Cycle Costs 36
vii
viii CONTENTS
Cost Estimating 38
Types of Estimate 38
Difficulties in Estimation 39
Estimating Models 41
Per-Unit Model 41
Segmenting Model 43
Cost Indexes 44
Power-Sizing Model 45
Triangulation 47
Improvement and the Learning Curve 47
Estimating Benefits 50
Cash Flow Diagrams 50
Categories of Cash Flows 51
Drawing a Cash Flow Diagram 51
Drawing Cash How Diagrams with
a Spreadsheet 52
Summary 52
Problems 54
3 INTEREST AND EQUIVALENCE
Computing Cash Flows 62
Time Value of Money 64
Simple Interest 64
Compound Interest 65
Repaying a Debt 66
Equivalence 68
Difference in Repayment Plans 69
Equivalence Is Dependent on Interest Rate 71
Application of Equivalence Calculations 72
Single Payment Compound Interest Formulas 73
Summary 81
Problems 82
4 MORE INTEREST FORMULAS
Uniform Series Compound Interest Formulas 86
Relationships Between Compound Interest Factors 97
CONTENTS ix
Single Payment 97
Uniform Series 97
Arithmetic Gradient 98
Derivation of Arithmetic Gradient Factors 99
Geometric Gradient 105
Nominal and Effective Interest 109
Continuous Compounding 115
Single Payment Interest Factors: Continuous Compounding 116
Uniform Payment Series: Continuous Compounding at Nominal Rate r
per Period 118
Continuous, Uniform Cash How (One Period) with Continuous Compounding
at Nominal Interest Rate r 120
Spreadsheets for Economic Analysis 122
Spreadsheet Annuity Functions 122
Spreadsheet Block Functions 123
Using Spreadsheets for Basic Graphing 124
Summary 126
Problems 129
5 PRESENT WORTH ANALYSIS
Assumptions in Solving Economic Analysis Problems 144
End-of-Year Convention 144
Viewpoint of Economic Analysis Studies 145
Sunk Costs 145
Borrowed Money Viewpoint 145
Effect of Inflation and Deflation 145
Income Taxes 146
Economic Criteria 146
Applying Present Worth Techniques 147
Useful Lives Equal the Analysis Period 147
Useful Lives Different from the Analysis Period 151
Inlinite Analysis Period: Capitalized Cost 154
Multiple Alternatives 158
Spreadsheets and Present Worth 162
Summary 164
Problems 165
CONTENTS
6 ANNUAL CASH FLOW ANALYSIS
Annual Cash Flow Calculations 1 78
Resolving a Present Cost to an Annual Cost 178
Treatment of Salvage Value 178
Annual Cash Flow Analysis 182
Analysis Period 184
Analysis Period Equal to Alternative Lives 186
Analysis Period a Common Multiple
of Alternative Lives 186
Analysis Period for a Continuing Requirement 186
Infinite Analysis Period 187
Some Other Analysis Period 188
Using Spreadsheets to Analyze Loans 190
Building an Amortization Schedule 190
How Much to Interest? How Much to Principal? 191
Finding the Balance Due on a Loan 191
Pay Off Debt Sooner by Increasing Payments 192
Summary 193
Problems 194
7 RATE OF RETURN ANALYSIS
Internal Rate of Return 204
Calculating Rate of Return 205
Plot of NPW versus Interest Rate i 209
Rate of Return Analysis 212
Present Worth Analysis 216
Analysis Period 219
Spreadsheets and Rate of Return Analysis 220
Summary 221
Problems 222
Appendix 7A Difficulties in Solving for an Interest Rate 229
8 INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS
Graphical Solutions 246
Incremental Rate of Return Analysis 252
CONTENTS xi
Elements in Incremental Rate of Return Analysis 257
Incremental Analysis withUnlimited Alternatives 258
Present Worth Analysis with Benefit-Cost Graphs 260
Choosing an Analysis Method 261
Spreadsheets and Incremental Analysis 262
Summary 263
Problems 264
9 OTHER ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES
Future Worth Analysis 272
Benefit-Cost Ratio Analysis 274
Continuous Alternatives 279
Payback Period 280
Sensitivity and Breakeven Analysis 285
Graphing with Spreadsheets for Sensitivity and Breakeven Analysis 289
Summary 293
Problems 293
10 UNCERTAINTY IN FUTURE EVENTS
Estimates and Their Use in Economic Analysis 304
A Range of Estimates 306
Probability 308
Joint Probability Distributions 311
Expected Value 313
Economic Decision Trees 316
Risk 322
Risk Versus Return 324
Simulation 326
Summary 330
Problems 330
11 DEPRECIATION
Basic Aspects of Depreciation 338
Deterioration and Obsolescence 338
Depreciation and Expenses 339
xii CONTENTS
Types of Property 340
Depreciation Calculation Fundamentals 341
Historical Depreciation Methods 342
Straight-Line Depreciation 342
Sum-of-Years’ -Digits Depreciation 344
Declining Balance Depreciation 346
Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) 347
Cost Basis and Placed-in-Service Date 348
Property Class and Recovery Period 348
Percentage Tables 349
Where MACRS Percentage Rates (rf ) Come From 351
MACRS Method Examples 353
Comparing MACRS and Historical Methods 355
Depreciation and Asset Disposal 356
Unit-of-Production Depreciation 359
Depletion 360
Cost Depletion 360
Percentage Depletion 361
Spreadsheets and Depreciation 362
Using VDB for MACRS 363
Summary 364
Problems 365
12 INCOME TAXES
A Partner in the Business 372
Calculation of Taxable Income 372
Taxable Income of Individuals 372
Classification of Business Expenditures 373
Taxable Income of Business Firms 374
Income Tax Rates 375
Individual Tax Rates 375
Corporate Tax Rates 377
Combined Federal and State Income Taxes 379
Selecting an Income Tax Rate for Economy Studies 380
Economic Analysis Taking Income Taxes into Account 380
CONTENTS xiit
Capital Gains and Losses for Nondepreciated Assets 384
Investment Tax Credit 384
Estimating the After-Tax Rate of Return 385
After-Tax Cash Flows and Spreadsheets 385
Summary 386
Problems 387
13 REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS
The Replacement Problem 400
Replacement Analysis Decision Maps 401
What Is the Basic Comparison? 401
Minimum Cost Life of the Challenger 402
Use of Marginal Cost Data 404
Lowest EUAC of the Defender 411
No Defender Marginal Cost Data Available 415
Repeatability Assumptions Not Acceptable 418
A Closer Look at Future Challengers 419
After-Tax Replacement Analysis 420
Marginal Costs on an After-Tax Basis 420
After-Tax Cash Flows for the Challenger 422
After-Tax Cash Flows for the Defender 422
Minimum Cost Life Problems 427
Spreadsheets and Replacement Analysis 429
Summary 429
Problems 431
14 INFLATION AND PRICE CHANGE
Meaning and Effect of Inflation 440
How Does Inflation Happen? 440
Definitions for Considering Inflation in Engineering Economy 441
Analysis in Constant Dollars Versus Then-Current Dollars 448
Price Change with Indexes 450
What Is a Price Index? 450
Composite Versus Commodity Indexes 453
How to Use Price Indexes in Engineering Economic Analysis 456
xiv CONTENTS ______
Cash Flows That Inflate at Different Rates 456
Different Inflation Rates per Period 458
Inflation Effect on After-Tax Calculations 460
Using Spreadsheets for Inflation Calculations 462
Summary 464
Problems 465
15 SELECTION OF A MINIMUM ATTRACTIVE RATE OF RETURN
Sources of Capital 474
Money Generated from the Operation of theFirm 474
External Sources of Money 474
Choice of Source of Funds 474
Cost of Funds 475
Cost of Borrowed Money 475
Cost of Capital 475
Investment Opportunities 476
Opportunity Cost 476
Selecting a Minimum Attractive Rate of Return 479
Adjusting MARR to Account for Risk and Uncertainty 479
Inflation and the Cost of Borrowed Money 481
Representative Values of MARR Used in Industry 482
Spreadsheets, Cumulative Investments, and the Opportunity
Cost of Capital 483
Summary 485
Problems 485
16 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
Investment Objective 490
Viewpoint for Analysis 492
Selecting an Interest Rate 493
No Time-Value-of-Money Concept 494
Cost of Capital Concept 494
Opportunity Cost Concept 494
Recommended Concept 495
The Benefit-Cost Ratio 496
CONTENTS xv
Incremental Benefit-Cost Analysis 498
Elements of the Incremental Benefit-Cost Ratio Method 499
Other Effects of Public Projects 505
Project Financing 505
Project Duration 506
Project Politics 507
Summary 509
Problems 510
17 RATIONING CAPITAL AMONG COMPETING PROJECTS
Capital Expenditure Project Proposals 518
Mutually Exclusive Alternatives and Single Project Proposals 519
Identifying and Rejecting Unattractive Alternatives 520
Selecting the Best Alternative from Each Project Proposal 521
Rationing Capital by Rate of Return 521
Significance of the Cutoff Rate of Return 523
Rationing Capital by Present Worth Methods 524
Ranking Project Proposals 530
Summary 532
Problems 533
18 ACCOUNTING AND ENGINEERING ECONOMY
The Role of Accounting 540
Accounting for Business Transactions 540
The Balance Sheet 541
AvSsets 541
Liabilities 542
Equity 543
Financial Ratios Derived from Balance Sheet Data 543
The Income Statement 544
Financial Ratios Derived from Income Statement Data 546
Linking the Balance Sheet, Income Statement, and Capital Transactions 546
Traditional Cost Accounting 547
Direct and Indirect Costs 548
Indirect Cost Allocation 548
xvi CONTENTS
Problems with Traditional Cost Accounting 549
Other Problems to Watch For 550
Problems 551
APPENDIX A INTRODUCTION TO SPREADSHEETS 554
The Elements of a Spreadsheet 554
Defining Variables in a Data Block 555
Copy Command 555
APPENDIX B COMPOUND INTEREST TABLES 559
REFERENCE 591
INDEX
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