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 |  موضوع: كتاب Contemporary Engineering Economics Fourth Edition الإثنين 06 نوفمبر 2017, 7:01 am | |
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أحضرت لكم كتاب
Contemporary Engineering Economics Fourth Edition
Chan S. Park
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering Auburn University
ويتناول الموضوعات الأتية :
CONTENTS
Preface xix
PART 1 BASICS OF FINANCIAL DECISIONS 1
Chapter 1 Engineering Economic Decisions 2
1.1 Role of Engineers in Business 4
1.1.1 Types of Business Organization 5
1.1.2 Engineering Economic Decisions 6
1.1.3 Personal Economic Decisions 6
1.2 What Makes the Engineering Economic Decision Difficult? 7
1.3 Economic Decisions versus Design Decisions 8
1.4 Large-Scale Engineering Projects 9
1.4.1 How a Typical Project Idea Evolves 9
1.4.2 Impact of Engineering Projects on Financial Statements 12
1.4.3 A Look Back in 2005: Did Toyota Make the Right Decision? 13
1.5 Common Types of Strategic Engineering Economic Decisions 13
1.6 Fundamental Principles of Engineering Economics 15
Summary 17
Chapter 2 Understanding Financial Statements 18
2.1 Accounting: The Basis of Decision Making 21
2.2 Financial Status for Businesses 22
2.2.1 The Balance Sheet 24
2.2.2 The Income Statement 27
2.2.3 The Cash Flow Statement 30
2.3 Using Ratios to Make Business Decisions 33
2.3.1 Debt Management Analysis 34
2.3.2 Liquidity Analysis 37
2.3.3 Asset Management Analysis 38
2.3.4 Profitability Analysis 39
2.3.5 Market Value Analysis 41
2.3.6 Limitations of Financial Ratios in Business Decisions 42
Summary 43
Problems 44
Short Case Studies 50Chapter 3 Interest Rate and Economic Equivalence 52
3.1 Interest: The Cost of Money 54
3.1.1 The Time Value of Money 55
3.1.2 Elements of Transactions Involving Interest 56
3.1.3 Methods of Calculating Interest 59
3.1.4 Simple Interest versus Compound Interest 62
3.2 Economic Equivalence 63
3.2.1 Definition and Simple Calculations 63
3.2.2 Equivalence Calculations: General Principles 66
3.2.3 Looking Ahead 71
3.3 Development of Interest Formulas 71
3.3.1 The Five Types of Cash Flows 72
3.3.2 Single-Cash-Flow Formulas 73
3.3.3 Uneven Payment Series 80
3.3.4 Equal Payment Series 84
3.3.5 Linear Gradient Series 96
3.3.6 Geometric Gradient Series 102
3.4 Unconventional Equivalence Calculations 107
3.4.1 Composite Cash Flows 107
3.4.2 Determining an Interest Rate to Establish Economic Equivalence 114
Summary 119
Problems 119
Short Case Studies 129
Chapter 4 Understanding Money and Its Management 134
4.1 Nominal and Effective Interest Rates 136
4.1.1 Nominal Interest Rates 136
4.1.2 Effective Annual Interest Rates 137
4.1.3 Effective Interest Rates per Payment Period 140
4.1.4 Continuous Compounding 141
4.2 Equivalence Calculations with Effective Interest Rates 143
4.2.1 When Payment Period Is Equal to Compounding Period 144
4.2.2 Compounding Occurs at a Different Rate than that at
Which Payments Are Made 145
4.3 Equivalence Calculations with Continuous Payments 152
4.3.1 Single-Payment Transactions 152
4.3.2 Continuous-Funds Flow 152
viii CONTENTSContents ix
4.4 Changing Interest Rates 156
4.4.1 Single Sums of Money 156
4.4.2 Series of Cash Flows 158
4.5 Debt Management 159
4.5.1 Commercial Loans 159
4.5.2 Loan versus Lease Financing 167
4.5.3 Home Mortgage 171
4.6 Investing in Financial Assets 175
4.6.1 Investment Basics 175
4.6.2 How to Determine Your Expected Return 176
4.6.3 Investing in Bonds 179
Summary 187
Problems 188
Short Case Studies 199
PART 2 EVALUATION OF BUSINESS
AND ENGINEERING ASSETS 203
Chapter 5 Present-Worth Analysis 204
5.1 Describing Project Cash Flows 207
5.1.1 Loan versus Project Cash Flows 207
5.1.2 Independent versus Mutually Exclusive
Investment Projects 209
5.2 Initial Project Screening Method 210
5.2.1 Payback Period: The Time It Takes to Pay Back 210
5.2.2 Benefits and Flaws of Payback Screening 213
5.2.3 Discounted Payback Period 214
5.2.4 Where Do We Go from Here? 215
5.3 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis 215
5.3.1 Net-Present-Worth Criterion 216
5.3.2 Meaning of Net Present Worth 220
5.3.3 Basis for Selecting the MARR 222
5.4 Variations of Present-Worth Analysis 223
5.4.1 Future-Worth Analysis 223
5.4.2 Capitalized Equivalent Method 227
5.5 Comparing Mutually Exclusive Alternatives 232
5.5.1 Meaning of Mutually Exclusive and “Do Nothing” 232
5.5.2 Analysis Period 2355.5.3 Analysis Period Equals Project Lives 236
5.5.4 Analysis Period Differs from Project Lives 238
5.5.5 Analysis Period Is Not Specified 246
Summary 249
Problems 249
Short Case Studies 265
Chapter 6 Annual Equivalent-Worth Analysis 268
6.1 Annual Equivalent-Worth Criterion 270
6.1.1 Fundamental Decision Rule 270
6.1.2 Annual-Worth Calculation with Repeating Cash Flow Cycles 273
6.1.3 Comparing Mutually Exclusive Alternatives 275
6.2 Capital Costs versus Operating Costs 277
6.3 Applying Annual-Worth Analysis 280
6.3.1 Benefits of AE Analysis 281
6.3.2 Unit Profit or Cost Calculation 281
6.3.3 Make-or-Buy Decision 283
6.3.4 Pricing the Use of an Asset 286
6.4 Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 287
6.5 Design Economics 294
Summary 303
Problems 304
Short Case Studies 318
Chapter 7 Rate-of-Return Analysis 322
7.1 Rate of Return 324
7.1.1 Return on Investment 324
7.1.2 Return on Invested Capital 326
7.2 Methods for Finding the Rate of Return 327
7.2.1 Simple versus Nonsimple Investments 327
7.2.2 Predicting Multiple i*’s 329
7.2.3 Computational Methods 331
7.3 Internal-Rate-of-Return Criterion 338
7.3.1 Relationship to PW Analysis 338
7.3.2 Net-Investment Test: Pure versus Mixed Investments 339
7.3.3 Decision Rule for Pure Investments 341
7.3.4 Decision Rule for Mixed Investments 344
x CONTENTS7.4 Mutually Exclusive Alternatives 352
7.4.1 Flaws in Project Ranking by IRR 352
7.4.2 Incremental Investment Analysis 353
7.4.3 Handling Unequal Service Lives 360
Summary 363
Problems 364
Short Case Studies 381
PART 3 ANALYSIS OF PROJECT CASH FLOWS 385
Chapter 8 Cost Concepts Relevant to Decision Making 386
8.1 General Cost Terms 388
8.1.1 Manufacturing Costs 388
8.1.2 Nonmanufacturing Costs 390
8.2 Classifying Costs for Financial Statements 390
8.2.1 Period Costs 391
8.2.2 Product Costs 391
8.3 Cost Classification for Predicting Cost Behavior 394
8.3.1 Volume Index 394
8.3.2 Cost Behaviors 395
8.4 Future Costs for Business Decisions 400
8.4.1 Differential Cost and Revenue 400
8.4.2 Opportunity Cost 404
8.4.3 Sunk Costs 406
8.4.4 Marginal Cost 406
8.5 Estimating Profit from Production 411
8.5.1 Calculation of Operating Income 412
8.5.2 Sales Budget for a Manufacturing Business 412
8.5.3 Preparing the Production Budget 413
8.5.4 Preparing the Cost-of-Goods-Sold Budget 415
8.5.5 Preparing the Nonmanufacturing Cost Budget 416
8.5.6 Putting It All Together: The Budgeted Income Statement 418
8.5.7 Looking Ahead 419
Summary 420
Problems 421
Short Case Study 427
Contents xiChapter 9 Depreciation and Corporate Taxes 428
9.1 Asset Depreciation 431
9.1.1 Economic Depreciation 432
9.1.2 Accounting Depreciation 432
9.2 Factors Inherent in Asset Depreciation 433
9.2.1 Depreciable Property 433
9.2.2 Cost Basis 434
9.2.3 Useful Life and Salvage Value 435
9.2.4 Depreciation Methods: Book and Tax Depreciation 436
9.3 Book Depreciation Methods 437
9.3.1 Straight-Line Method 437
9.3.2 Accelerated Methods 439
9.3.3 Units-of-Production Method 445
9.4 Tax Depreciation Methods 446
9.4.1 MACRS Depreciation 446
9.4.2 MACRS Depreciation Rules 447
9.5 Depletion 453
9.5.1 Cost Depletion 453
9.5.2 Percentage Depletion 454
9.6 Repairs or Improvements Made to Depreciable Assets 456
9.6.1 Revision of Book Depreciation 456
9.6.2 Revision of Tax Depreciation 457
9.7 Corporate Taxes 459
9.7.1 Income Taxes on Operating Income 459
9.8 Tax Treatment of Gains or Losses on Depreciable Assets 462
9.8.1 Disposal of a MACRS Property 462
9.8.2 Calculations of Gains and Losses on MACRS Property 464
9.9 Income Tax Rate to Be Used in Economic Analysis 467
9.9.1 Incremental Income Tax Rate 467
9.9.2 Consideration of State Income Taxes 470
9.10 The Need for Cash Flow in Engineering Economic Analysis 472
9.10.1 Net Income versus Net Cash Flow 472
9.10.2 Treatment of Noncash Expenses 473
Summary 476
Problems 478
Short Case Studies 487
xii CONTENTSChapter 10 Developing Project Cash Flows 490
10.1 Cost–Benefit Estimation for Engineering Projects 492
10.1.1 Simple Projects 493
10.1.2 Complex Projects 493
10.2 Incremental Cash Flows 494
10.2.1 Elements of Cash Outflows 494
10.2.2 Elements of Cash Inflows 495
10.2.3 Classification of Cash Flow Elements 497
10.3 Developing Cash Flow Statements 498
10.3.1 When Projects Require Only Operating and Investing Activities 498
10.3.2 When Projects Require Working-Capital Investments 502
10.3.3 When Projects Are Financed with Borrowed Funds 507
10.3.4 When Projects Result in Negative Taxable Income 509
10.3.5 When Projects Require Multiple Assets 513
10.4 Generalized Cash Flow Approach 516
10.4.1 Setting up Net Cash Flow Equations 517
10.4.2 Presenting Cash Flows in Compact Tabular Formats 518
10.4.3 Lease-or-Buy Decision 520
Summary 524
Problems 525
Short Case Studies 537
PART 4 HANDLING RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 541
Chapter 11 Inflation and Its Impact on Project Cash Flows 542
11.1 Meaning and Measure of Inflation 544
11.1.1 Measuring Inflation 544
11.1.2 Actual versus Constant Dollars 550
11.2 Equivalence Calculations under Inflation 553
11.2.1 Market and Inflation-Free Interest Rates 553
11.2.2 Constant-Dollar Analysis 553
11.2.3 Actual-Dollar Analysis 554
11.2.4 Mixed-Dollar Analysis 558
11.3 Effects of Inflation on Project Cash Flows 558
11.3.1 Multiple Inflation Rates 562
11.3.2 Effects of Borrowed Funds under Inflation 563
Contents xiii11.4 Rate-of-Return Analysis under Inflation 566
11.4.1 Effects of Inflation on Return on Investment 566
11.4.2 Effects of Inflation on Working Capital 569
Summary 572
Problems 574
Short Case Studies 582
Chapter 12 Project Risk and Uncertainty 584
12.1 Origins of Project Risk 586
12.2 Methods of Describing Project Risk 587
12.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis 587
12.2.2 Break-Even Analysis 591
12.2.3 Scenario Analysis 594
12.3 Probability Concepts for Investment Decisions 596
12.3.1 Assessment of Probabilities 596
12.3.2 Summary of Probabilistic Information 601
12.3.3 Joint and Conditional Probabilities 603
12.3.4 Covariance and Coefficient of Correlation 605
12.4 Probability Distribution of NPW 605
12.4.1 Procedure for Developing an NPW Distribution 605
12.4.2 Aggregating Risk over Time 611
12.4.3 Decision Rules for Comparing Mutually Exclusive
Risky Alternatives 616
12.5 Risk Simulation 618
12.5.1 Computer Simulation 619
12.5.2 Model Building 620
12.5.3 Monte Carlo Sampling 623
12.5.4 Simulation Output Analysis 628
12.5.5 Risk Simulation with @RISK 630
12.6 Decision Trees and Sequential Investment Decisions 633
12.6.1 Structuring a Decision-Tree Diagram 634
12.6.2 Worth of Obtaining Additional Information 639
12.6.3 Decision Making after Having Imperfect
Information 642
Summary 647
Problems 648
Short Case Studies 658
xiv CONTENTSContents xv
Chapter 13 Real-Options Analysis 664
13.1 Risk Management: Financial Options 666
13.1.1 Buy Call Options when You Expect the Price to Go Up 669
13.1.2 Buy Put Options when You Expect the Price to Go Down 669
13.2 Option Strategies 670
13.2.1 Buying Calls to Reduce Capital That Is at Risk 670
13.2.2 Protective Puts as a Hedge 673
13.3 Option Pricing 675
13.3.1 Replicating-Portfolio Approach with a Call Option 675
13.3.2 Risk-Free Financing Approach 677
13.3.3 Risk-Neutral Probability Approach 679
13.3.4 Put-Option Valuation 680
13.3.5 Two-Period Binomial Lattice Option Valuation 681
13.3.6 Multiperiod Binomial Lattice Model 683
13.3.7 Black–Scholes Option Model 684
13.4 Real-Options Analysis 686
13.4.1 A Conceptual Framework for Real Options
in Engineering Economics 687
13.4.2 Types of Real-Option Models 688
13.5 Estimating Volatility at the Project Level 697
13.5.1 Estimating a Project’s Volatility through a
Simple Deferral Option 697
13.5.2 Use the Existing Model of a Financial Option to Estimate ?2 699
13.6 Compound Options 703
Summary 708
Problems 709
Short Case Studies 713
PART 5 SPECIAL TOPICS IN ENGINEERING
ECONOMICS 715
Chapter 14 Replacement Decisions 716
14.1 Replacement Analysis Fundamentals 718
14.1.1 Basic Concepts and Terminology 718
14.1.2 Opportunity Cost Approach to Comparing
Defender and Challenger 72114.2 Economic Service Life 723
14.3 Replacement Analysis when the Required Service Is Long 728
14.3.1 Required Assumptions and Decision Frameworks 729
14.3.2 Replacement Strategies under the Infinite Planning Horizon 730
14.3.3 Replacement Strategies under the Finite Planning Horizon 735
14.3.4 Consideration of Technological Change 738
14.4 Replacement Analysis with Tax Considerations 739
Summary 755
Problems 756
Short Case Studies 768
Chapter 15 Capital-Budgeting Decisions 776
15.1 Methods of Financing 778
15.1.1 Equity Financing 779
15.1.2 Debt Financing 780
15.1.3 Capital Structure 782
15.2 Cost of Capital 787
15.2.1 Cost of Equity 787
15.2.2 Cost of Debt 792
15.2.3 Calculating the Cost of Capital 794
15.3 Choice of Minimum Attractive Rate of Return 795
15.3.1 Choice of MARR when Project Financing Is Known 795
15.3.2 Choice of MARR when Project Financing Is Unknown 797
15.3.3 Choice of MARR under Capital Rationing 799
15.4 Capital Budgeting 803
15.4.1 Evaluation of Multiple Investment Alternatives 803
15.4.2 Formulation of Mutually Exclusive Alternatives 803
15.4.3 Capital-Budgeting Decisions with Limited Budgets 805
Summary 809
Problems 810
Short Case Studies 816
Chapter 16 Economic Analysis in the Service Sector 822
16.1 What Is the Service Sector? 824
16.1.1 Characteristics of the Service Sector 825
16.1.2 How to Price Service 825
xvi CONTENTS16.2 Economic Analysis in Health-Care Service 826
16.2.1 Economic Evaluation Tools 827
16.2.2 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 828
16.2.3 How to Use a CEA 829
16.3 Economic Analysis in the Public Sector 832
16.3.1 What Is Benefit–Cost Analysis? 833
16.3.2 Framework of Benefit–Cost Analysis 833
16.3.3 Valuation of Benefits and Costs 834
16.3.4 Quantifying Benefits and Costs 836
16.3.5 Difficulties Inherent in Public-Project Analysis 840
16.4 Benefit–Cost Ratios 840
16.4.1 Definition of Benefit–Cost Ratio 840
16.4.2 Relationship between B/C Ratio and NPW 843
16.4.3 Comparing Mutually Exclusive Alternatives:
Incremental Analysis 843
16.5 Analysis of Public Projects Based on Cost-Effectiveness 846
16.5.1 Cost-Effectiveness Studies in the Public Sector 847
16.5.2 A Cost-Effectiveness Case Study 847
Summary 856
Problems 857
Short Case Studies 862
Appendix A Interest Factors for Discrete Compounding 869
Index
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