كتاب Ship and Offshore Structure Design in Climate Change Perspective

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Ship and Offshore Structure Design in Climate Change Perspective
Elzbieta Maria , Bitner-Gregersen , Lars Ingolf Eide , Torfinn Hørte , Rolf Skjong

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Contents
1 Introduction 1
References 3
2 Observed and Predicted Climate Change . 5
2.1 IPPC Scenarios . 5
2.2 Climate Change and Variability . 8
2.3 Changes in Storminess and Wind in the Twentieth Century 9
2.3.1 Extra-Tropical Storms . 9
2.3.2 Tropical Storms . 12
2.4 Changes in Waves in the Twentieth Century . 14
2.5 Expected Changes in Storminess and Wind
in the Twenty-first Century . 17
2.5.1 Extra-Tropical Storms . 17
2.5.2 Tropical Cyclones 19
2.6 Expected Changes in Waves in the Twenty-first Century 20
2.7 Changes in Other Parameters that May Impact
Ocean Transportation . 23
2.7.1 Water Level 23
2.7.2 Sea Ice . 24
References 25
3 Uncertainties 29
3.1 General 29
3.2 Definition of Uncertainties . 29
3.3 Uncertainties Related to Wave Climate Projections 31
3.3.1 Effect of Climate Model and Climate Forcing 32
3.3.2 Effect of Downscaling . 34
3.3.3 Effect of Extreme Value Model 36
References 37
4 Summary of Past and Future Climate Change . 39
xi5 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Design of Ship
and Offshore Structures 43
5.1 General 43
5.2 Climate Change and Variability and Met-Ocean
Design Criteria . 43
5.3 Risk-Based Approach Applied in Current Design . 44
5.4 Risk-Based Approach Including Climate Changes . 48
References 50
6 Consequences of Wave Climate Change for Tanker Design 53
6.1 Current Design Wave Database for Ship Structures 53
6.2 Hull Girder Collapse in Extreme Sagging Conditions . 55
6.2.1 Set-Up of the Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) 55
6.2.2 Still Water Bending Moment 58
6.2.3 Wave Bending Moment 58
6.2.4 Combination of Still Water and Wave
Bending Moment 60
6.2.5 Ultimate Bending Moment Capacity . 60
6.2.6 Results of Structural Reliability Analysis 61
References 64
7 Conclusions . 67
References

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